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12/24/2006 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ron Dayne rushed for a career-high 153 yards and scored two touchdowns, and Kris Brown booted a 48-yard field goal as time expired, as Houston stunned Indianapolis with a 27-24 victory, the first win in 10 all-time meetings.
David Carr completed 16-of-23 passes for 163 yards with a touchdown for the Texans (5-10), who ended a two-game slide. Dayne also surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time since the 2001 season, when he was a member of the New York Giants.
Vonta Leach caught his first touchdown pass of the season for Houston, which scored the game's first 14 points to take control early.
Peyton Manning went 21-for-27 for 205 yards and three touchdowns for the Colts (11-4), who have lost four of their last five. Manning also surpassed the 4,000-yard passing mark for the seventh time in the last eight seasons, setting a new NFL record.
Marvin Harrison hauled in eight passes for 112 yards and two scores while Joseph Addai ran for 100 yards for Indianapolis, which has already won the AFC South championship for the fourth straight year. The Colts could have secured a first-round playoff bye with a win and a Baltimore loss.
After Indy tied the contest at 24-24 with just under three minutes left in the fourth, Houston's Dexter Wynn returned the kickoff 38 yards to the Houston 39. Carr then moved the Texans down to the 33-yard line, setting up Brown for a game-winning field goal attempt. After the Colts took two timeouts, attempting to ice the kicker with three seconds left, Brown stepped up and split the uprights with a 48-yard field goal to win it for Houston.
The Texans scored on the opening drive of the game to take an early 7-0 lead. Dayne capped a 10-play, 61-yard drive with a three-yard touchdown up the middle. The key play on the drive was a 25-yard pass to Mark Bruener while Dayne had 21 yards rushing.
After recovering a Dominic Rhodes fumble on the following drive, Houston put together a nine-play, 47-yard drive that ended with Dayne barreling his way across the goal line from six yards out for his second touchdown of the game with 5:46 left in the first.
With less than a minute left in the opening quarter, the Colts got on the board and made it 14-7 after Manning connected with a wide-open Harrison for a 37-yard touchdown.
Indianapolis evened the score at 14-14 with 8:16 left in the second stanza after Manning found Aaron Moorehead open just over the goal line for a nine- yard touchdown pass.
Houston went into halftime with a 21-14 lead after Carr connected with Leach for a three-yard touchdown reception with just 16 seconds remaining in the first half. The Texans marched 75 yards on 14 plays during the scoring drive that spanned eight minutes.
With 6:08 left in the third quarter, the Colts pulled to within 21-17 after Adam Vinatieri split the uprights with a 33-yard field goal. Vinatieri's three points highlighted an 11-play, 65-yard drive.
Brown extended Houston's lead to 24-17 with 6:54 left in the contest after hitting a 42-yard field goal. Brown's field goal ended a mammoth drive for the Texans that went 51 yards on 15 plays and lasted almost 9 1/2 minutes.
Manning and the Colts though tied the game at 24-24 after Harrison hauled in his second touchdown of the game, a seven-yard reception over the middle of the end zone with 2:41 remaining.
Game Notes
The Colts had won all nine head-to-head meetings with the Texans all-time, including a 43-24 home triumph in Week 2 this season...Dayne has five touchdowns over his last four games...Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson had four catches for 48 yards and...The Texans outgained the Colts in total net yards, 354-319...The Colts close out the regular season next Sunday at home against the Miami Dolphins while the Texans host the Cleveland Browns in their season finale.
<< Browns lifts Texans past Colts for first time in franchise history
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ron Dayne rushed for a career-high 153 yards
and scored two touchdowns, and Kris Brown booted a 48-yard field goal as time
expired, as Houston stunned Indianapolis with a 27-24 victory, the first win
in 10 a
<< Strahan back on the field for New York
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants defensive end Michael
Strahan returned to the lineup on Sunday against the Saints after missing the
last six games with a sprained foot ligament.
Strahan hasn't played since injurin
<< Springs breaks shoulder blade
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Redskins defensive back Shawn
Springs broke a shoulder blade in the first quarter of Sunday's game against
St. Louis.
Springs had surgery to repair a minor tear in his abdominal muscle earli
<< Vick becomes first QB to top 1,000 yards rushing
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick
needed only 10 yards rushing in Sunday's game against Carolina to become the
first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in a single season.
He got all of it
Vick sets running record, but Falcons fall to Panthers >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Vick became the first quarterback in
NFL history to top 1,000 yards rushing, but did little else as the Atlanta
Falcons continued to fade out of the uninspiring NFC wild-card picture, losing
10-3 to
New England clinches AFC East with win over Jacksonville >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Brady threw for 249 yards and a
touchdown as New England edged Jacksonville, 24-21, to win its fourth
consecutive AFC East title at Alltel Stadium.
Brady completed 28-of-39 passes for t
Young leads streaking Titans past Bills >>
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Vince Young threw for 183 yards and
two touchdowns, and also ran for 61 yards and a score, as Tennessee edged
Buffalo, 30-29, to keep its slim playoff hopes alive.
Young, who completed 13-of-20
Ravens stop Steelers, vault into No. 2 seed in AFC >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve McNair threw three touchdowns as
Baltimore moved in to the second seed in the AFC with a 31-7 shellacking
of the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field.
McNair went 21-of-31 with 256 yards a
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
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