Happ strong again as Astros down Arizona

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hunter Pence's three-run home run in the first inning stood up as the deciding hit as Houston held off Arizona, 3-2, to wrap up a three-game set.

Pence finished 2-for-4 and Jeff Keppinger added a hit and a run scored for the Astros, who took the final two games of the series and have won five of their last six contests.

J.A. Happ (6-2) continued his fine pitching since being acquired from Philadelphia, as he yielded two runs on six hits while walking two and striking out seven over seven frames to grab the win and Brandon Lyon worked around a one-out double in the ninth to register his 13th save.

Rodrigo Lopez (5-13) allowed all three runs on six hits and a pair of walks while striking out five over six innings to take the loss for the Diamondbacks, who claimed the season series, 4-3.

Michael Bourn started the game with a walk and Keppinger followed with a base hit before Pence pounded his three-run home run the other way to right field to put the Astros ahead.

Arizona chipped away at the lead on John Hester's solo homer in the third and Kelly Johnson's solo shot to center in the fourth.

The hosts' bid to tie the game in the fifth was thwarted when Hester was thrown out at the plate trying to score from second base on Stephen Drew's infield single.

Happ worked out of a first-and-second, one-out jam in the seventh by striking out Hester and pinch-hitter Ryan Roberts to close his performance.

Matt Lindstrom stranded Chris Young at third base in a scoreless eighth before turning the game over to Lyon, who got Gerardo Parra to fly out and pinch-hitter Miguel Montero to strike out to end the game after Brandon Allen's pinch-hit double.

Game Notes

Pence has hit safely in six straight, including five multi-hit games, and has 11 hits during that stretch...Lyon has thrown scoreless relief in 13 consecutive outings and in 23 of his last 24 appearances since July 20...He has also converted each of his last 10 save chances since August 13...Lopez fell to 1-2 in four career outings against Houston, with his lone win coming as a member of the Orioles on June 15, 2005...Arizona outfielder Justin Upton missed his fifth straight game due to irritation in his left shoulder.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.