NBA's best meets worst as Cavs host Nets

Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The teams with the best and worst records in the NBA this season will go head-to-head at Quicken Loans Arena tonight, where the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers put an 11-game win streak on the line against the downtrodden New Jersey Nets.

Cleveland's current surge, tied with Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers for the longest string of consecutive wins in the league in 2009-10, has given the championship hopefuls a 41-11 record for the season and a comfortable six-game advantage over Southeast Division leader Orlando for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a 1 1/2-game edge on the Lakers for the best mark in the NBA.

The Cavaliers kept up their winning ways with Saturday's 113-106 home verdict over the New York Knicks, with LeBron James once again leading the way. The reigning league MVP established a franchise-best with 35 first-half points to help Cleveland build a commanding 74-54 lead at intermission, and finished with 47 along with eight rebounds and eight assists.

"I was able to shoot the ball extremely well, but still get my teammates involved," said James, who was named the Eastern Conference's Player of the Week on Monday. "When I'm on fire, I can go for a lot of points, but getting my teammates involved is good for us in the long run."

Shaquille O'Neal chipped in 19 points and Anthony Parker scored 11 for the Cavaliers, who continue to win despite injuries to two key members in Mo Williams and Delonte West.

West, who missed the last eight games due to a broken ring finger, did practice without incident on Monday and could be back in the lineup for tonight's matchup. Williams, who's second to James among Cleveland players in scoring (16.9 ppg) and assists (5.1 apg), hasn't played since January 19 because of a sprained left shoulder and is sidelined indefinitely.

The Cavs will be shooting for a 10th straight home victory tonight and are an NBA-best 22-3 at Quicken Loans Arena this season. In contrast, New Jersey is a woeful 1-26 on the road and has dropped 14 in a row since its lone triumph as the visitor, a 103-101 decision over Chicago on December 8.

The 4-46 Nets have also lost six straight games overall and 17 of its last 18 contests following Saturday's 99-92 defeat at Detroit. The team's latest loss was further marred by an injury to top player Devin Harris, who had to be helped off the court after colliding with teammate Jarvis Hayes in the game's final minute.

Harris, who put up a team-best 21 points and seven assists in the loss, was diagnosed with a sprained left shoulder and will be a game-time decision this evening. The 26-year-old missed nearly two weeks with a similar ailment last season.

This is my third sprained AC joint, so I just know how to brace it to make it feel better," Harris said after the game. "It's not as bad as the one I had last year."

Hayes bruised his left shin as a result of the incident and is expected to play tonight.

The Nets will be attempting to stop a stretch of six straight losses to the Cavaliers, with three of those defeats having taken place in Cleveland. The Cavs topped New Jersey by a 99-89 score at Quicken Loans Arena back on December 15.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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