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05/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals' starting pitching was the envy of the National League Central heading into this season, a formidable five-man staff anchored by arguably baseball's best one-two punch in co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Add two-time All-Star Brad Penny and promising rookie Jaime Garcia to a group that also contains a former 15-game winner in Kyle Lohse, and you've got a rotation that from top-to-bottom can rival any NL club when at full strength.
The unit has lived up to its advance billing over the first quarter of the season, having posted a collective 3.03 earned run average that's surpassed only by San Diego for tops in the Senior Circuit. Keeping up that strong pace figures to be a challenge in the coming weeks, however, with two members having been forced to the disabled list within the last few days.
Penny was placed on the 15-day DL on Saturday, one day after the burly right- hander exited a start against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim with a strained back muscle. Lohse joined his teammate there shortly afterward after being diagnosed with exertional compartment syndrome, a neuromuscular condition that has caused lingering soreness in his right forearm. He is scheduled to undergo surgery on Friday and will miss a minimum of two months.
Lohse has been plagued by the problem since last season, when the 31-year-old was limited to 22 starts and had a disappointing 6-10 record with a 4.74 ERA. He's struggled even more this year, having gone 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA in nine appearances and allowing an unhealthy .323 batting average against.
The two injuries could be a significant blow to a scuffling St. Louis squad that's produced a 9-13 record since May 4 and finds itself in a dogfight with the surprising Cincinnati Reds for first place in the division.
"It's something that every ballclub goes through, and we should feel blessed to be in second place because it could be a lot worse," first baseman Albert Pujols told the Cardinals' official site after Thursday's 8-3 win at San Diego. "Our pitching has pretty much been carrying us all year long."
While St. Louis will now rely even heavier on Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia -- a trio that's a combined 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA thus far -- untested youngsters such as P.J. Walters and Adam Ottavino will need to make the most of their newfound opportunities for the Cardinals to remain near the front of the pack. Walters took advantage of his chance in Thursday's game with the Padres, with the recently-recalled rookie tossing five shutout innings to earn his first victory in the majors.
Ottavino, the Cardinals' first-round pick of the 2006 draft, is slated to make his big-league debut in Lohse's place when St. Louis visits Chicago's Wrigley Field on Saturday. The 24-year-old tuned up for the start by surrendering just two runs and four hits over 12 innings in back-to-back wins for Triple-A Memphis.
CUETO COMING THROUGH FOR ROLLING REDS
The Cincinnati Reds continue to show the way in the NL Central and upped their season record to 28-20 after taking three of four meetings with division-rival Pittsburgh earlier in the week. It's the first time the team has been eight games over .500 since June of 2006.
Cincinnati secured another series win with Thursday's 8-2 rout of the Bucs, highlighted by the latest standout showing from emerging ace Johnny Cueto. Unaffected by a blister that reduced him to six innings in his previous start, the hard-throwing Dominican mowed down an overmatched Pittsburgh lineup over six scoreless frames to win his fourth consecutive outing.
Cueto yielded just three hits and struck out a season-high nine in his latest gem, and the 24-year-old has delivered a sensational 0.96 ERA over the course of his winning streak. Opponents have managed a meager .153 average off the right-hander during that period.
Cueto's performance followed up a terrific start from Bronson Arroyo on Wednesday, with the quirky veteran firing 7 2/3 shutout innings to lead the Reds to a 4-0 triumph over the Pirates.
Cincinnati enters this weekend's play with a one-game edge on the defending division champion Cardinals for first place and is a major-league best 14-5 since May 8. Like Cueto, Arroyo has played a big role in that surge, as he's also won his last four starts and is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA over his last six mound trips.
An offense that's tied for the NL lead with 58 home runs has done its part as well. The Reds went deep twice more in Thursday's win and have now homered in 16 straight games, the longest stretch in the majors this season and the team's best run since a 16-game tear from May 31-June 17, 2006.
MORE TROUBLES FOR PIRATES' MORTON
While Cueto was in control all throughout Thursday's game, Pittsburgh starter Charlie Morton struggled from the outset and was yanked after just two innings, with the puzzling right-hander getting torched for seven runs (five earned) on eight hits, including back-to-back homers by Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce in the opening frame.
That poor display was the most recent ordeal in what's been a nightmare season for Morton, expected to be one of the cornerstones of a young and promising rotation for the ever-rebuilding Pirates. The loss dropped the 26-year-old to 1-9 in 10 starts thus far in 2010, while raising his ERA to a ghastly 9.35. Home runs have been a particular issue for Morton, as he's now served up 12 of them in 43 1/3 innings pitched this season.
Morton, one of three prospects acquired by Pittsburgh from Atlanta last June in exchange for center fielder Nate McLouth, had seemed to have turned a corner after a horrendous beginning to the year. He had worked six innings in four of five assignments prior to Thursday's test and allowed three earned runs or less in all but one of those starts. However, this latest fiasco has once again led to questions about his short-term future with the club.
"We'll re-evaluate and see where we are," said Pirates manager John Russell, who did mention after the game that Morton had been dealing with shoulder fatigue at times this year. "He's struggling. We thought we were seeing a lot of progress in his last few starts and he didn't throw the ball like he's capable [Thursday]."
Pittsburgh does have a potential replacement waiting in the wings in prospect Brad Lincoln, the No. 4 overall pick of the 2006 draft who's gone 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Indianapolis this month.
ASTROS' OSWALT ON THE OUTS?
A 6-1 loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday dropped the Houston Astros to an NL-worst 15-30 on the season, the same record the team carried when it made its only World Series appearance on the strength of an astounding second-half run in 2005. The chances of this year's edition duplicating such a turnaround appear remote, however, which has led to widespread speculation about the futures of a number of veteran players presently on the roster.
Those whispers grew considerably louder with last week's revelation that top pitcher Roy Oswalt had asked team owner Drayton McLane to be traded to a contender prior to the July 31 non-waiver deadline. The three-time All-Star does have a no-trade clause in his current contract, which runs through the 2011 season and contains a $16 million team option for 2012, but clearly would be willing to waive it for the right fit.
A member of the Houston organization since 1996, Oswalt has won 15 games or more in five of his first nine major-league seasons and notched consecutive 20-victory campaigns with the Astros in 2004 and 2005. He's just four wins away from tying Joe Niekro for the franchise record for career wins.
"I've been here 10 years and have given everything I've got for 10 years and done everything I've had to do to stay on the field to win," Oswalt told reporters this past weekend. "Hopefully, there may be some options for both of us out there. I'm not looking for an out for me. I think from the standpoint as a franchise player for 10 years, it would be good for both of us."
The 32-year-old has done nothing but enhance his value over the first two months of the season. Despite a 3-6 record resulting from garnering the worst run support of any pitcher, Oswalt ranks among the NL leaders with a 2.35 ERA and has put forth a quality start in all 10 of his 2010 appearances, the first Houston pitcher to do so since Bob Knepper in 1988.
Oswalt had arguably his best effort of the year on Wednesday, when he limited the Brewers to four hits and fanned nine batters over eight shutout innings in a 5-0 Astros' triumph.
ZAMBRANO READY TO RETURN TO CUBS' ROTATION
The Chicago Cubs appear ready to pull the plug on the Carlos Zambrano relief experiment, with manager Lou Piniella announcing this week that the deposed staff ace will start the team's game at Pittsburgh this coming Wednesday. It will be Zambrano's first venture in his customary role since a six-inning stint against the New York Mets on April 20.
Zambrano, a three-time All-Star who's averaged better than 14 wins for the Cubs over the past seven seasons, was shifted to the bullpen in late April due to Ted Lilly's comeback from shoulder surgery and Chicago's need for a capable setup man in front of closer Carlos Marmol. The excitable Venezuelan had been struggling prior to the switch, recording a lackluster 7.45 ERA in four starts, but wasn't overly effective as a reliever either. In 11 games out of the pen, he registered a 4.76 ERA and allowed 16 hits over 11 1/3 innings.
The accomplished right-hander stretched out for his upcoming matchup by throwing 73 pitches in a simulated game this past Monday, although the Cubs' plans were nearly put on hold when Zambrano was briefly hospitalized on Thursday after experiencing abdominal pain. As it turned out, the situation wasn't serious and he was available to pitch in relief in Friday's game against St. Louis.
"He's ready to go," Piniella told the Cubs' official site following Monday's session. "His velocity was good. He worked on his split finger, worked on his cutter. He had a nice workout, a real nice workout."
Zambrano will rejoin a starting group that performed well during a five-game sequence preceding the St. Louis series. The Cubs won four times and tossed two shutouts during that span, with the lone loss coming in the form of an 8-5 defeat to the Dodgers on Wednesday.
Tom Gorzelanny started that game for Chicago and was tagged for seven runs (five earned) in just five innings to take the loss. The left-hander is expected to be the one supplanted by Zambrano in the Cubs' starting five.
BREWERS' MCGEHEE PROVING TO BE NO FLUKE
One of the more under-the-radar pickups of the 2009 offseason was the Milwaukee Brewers' claim of Casey McGehee off waivers from the Chicago Cubs system. The then-unknown infielder emerged as the Crew's starting third baseman and turned in an impressive debut, batting .301 with 16 homers and finishing fifth in balloting for the NL's Rookie of the Year Award.
Those predicting a sophomore slump have been quickly dispelled by McGehee's play over the early stages of this season. The 27-year-old knocked in his NL- leading 41st run of the year with a single in Thursday's 4-3 victory over Houston, part of a 3-for-5 afternoon which raised his average to .315, tied for the third-best mark in the Senior Circuit at the moment. He's also belted nine home runs, sharing the team lead with right fielder Corey Hart in that category.
A 10th-round selection by the Cubs in 2003, McGehee never received much of a look from his original organization despite earning All-Star honors three times in six minor-league seasons. Both opponents and fans have begun to take notice of the California native's accomplishments, as he stood third among NL third sackers when the first wave of voting for this year's All-Star Game was released earlier in the week.
Left fielder Ryan Braun, one of the other few bright spots for a Brewers team that's presently buried in fifth place in the NL Central with a discouraging 19-28 record, leads all league vote-getters in the outfield. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, who's batting .322 with 32 RBI, was tabbed as a starter in each of the past two Midsummer Classics.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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